A killer fungus that infects millions of people a year in hotter climes may soon spread through Europe and into the UK as the world warms further, according to a new study on how climate change spreads disease. The aspergillus species – which can cause deadly human brain infections, spoil livestock, and render crops unsafe to eat – is forecast to spread northwards from Africa and South America into Europe and Asia. How far it spreads will depend on how quickly the world phases out fossil fuels and other drivers of climate change, the paper said, while slow action will put more people at risk. Global warming is also upping the threat from diseases, such as those spread by mosquitoes like malaria and dengue. Fungi are a growing concern but largely unexplored. They live in the air, soil, and inside our bodies and spread through spores in the air we breathe – but more than 90% are estimated still to be unknown to science. Lead author of the new research, Norman van Rhijn from Manchester University, told Sky News they are «extremely difficult» to treat.
Few antifungal medicines exist, while the fungi themselves are increasingly drug-resistant and hard to spot and diagnose. But these organisms are also essential to a healthy ecosystem, decomposing organic matter and helping to suck up climate-heating carbon dioxide.
The study has not yet been peer-reviewed, but is backed by the renowned health institution the Wellcome Trust, which funded the research. Viv Goosens, research manager at Wellcome, said: «Fungal pathogens pose a serious threat to human health by causing infections and disrupting food systems. Climate change will make these risks worse. To address these challenges, we must fill important research gaps.» Professor Dann Mitchell from Bristol University, who was not involved with the study, said fungi are «often overlooked» in comparison with viral, bacterial, or parasitic pathogens, despite being a «crucial part of the picture.» Healthcare systems must be equipped to «recognize and respond to these new threats», as misdiagnosis is common when pathogens appear in unfamiliar regions, he warned.
The scientists looked at the existing habitats suitable for certain types of fungi to grow. They then mapped how those habitats might move or spread under different rates of global warming. In a worst-case scenario, the spread of Aspergillus flavus could increase by about 16%, putting 1 million more people at risk of infection in Europe, damaging the respiratory system, as well as various crops. It is highly virulent, causes severe infections, and is resistant to many antifungals available. And another in the same family, Aspergillus fumigatus, could spread by a further 77%, potentially exposing nine million people in Europe, the research suggested. However, it also found temperatures in Africa could become so high that some fungi would no longer be able to survive on the continent.
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