Retail sales saw a notable increase in July, driven by favorable weather conditions and the Women’s Euros tournament, according to official data.
In July, spending rose by 0.6%, surpassing the 0.2% growth expected by economists surveyed by Reuters, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Clothing and footwear retailers, along with online shopping platforms, experienced particularly strong growth during this period.
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However, when looking at a three-month timeframe, the sales figures show a 0.6% decline up to July, partly due to revisions made in June.
Since March, there has been a decline in spending, following a strong start to the year for supermarkets, sports shops, and household goods, driven by early summer purchases due to warm weather. Nonetheless, compared to the previous year, sales have increased by 1.1%.
Retail sales figures are crucial as they reflect household consumption, the largest expenditure in the UK economy.
An increase in retail sales can signify economic growth, a key priority repeatedly emphasized by the government.
A problem with the figures
The publication of these figures was initially scheduled for August but was delayed by two weeks to allow the ONS to conduct «quality assurance» checks.
Following these checks, the ONS identified an issue that required corrections to seasonally adjusted figures.
This incident is not the only instance raising concerns about the reliability of ONS data.
In March, UK trade figures were delayed due to errors from 2023, and the ONS continues to advise caution when interpreting changes in the monthly unemployment rate, citing concerns over data reliability.
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UK growth slowed amid rising costs in June.
As a result of this recent error, previous monthly figures exaggerated the monthly volatility in the first five months of 2025, as stated by James Benford, the ONS’s director general of economic statistics.
Mr. Benford expressed apologies for the delayed release and the errors uncovered.
What could it mean?
This development could lead to retrospective adjustments to the UK’s economic growth rate, according to Rob Wood, Pantheon Macroeconomics’ chief UK economist.
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Mr. Wood explained that April’s economic growth rate will be revised downwards, while May’s will be revised upwards as a consequence.
However, this situation is not expected to impact the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates.