The study warns that heat-related deaths in England and Wales could increase significantly by the 2070s due to the impact of climate change on an aging population. This comes at a time when areas of the UK are experiencing another heatwave, with temperatures expected to exceed 30C for many in the coming days.
According to research conducted by University College London (UCL) and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, annual heat-related deaths could rise into the tens of thousands in the coming decades. The current baseline figure of 634 heat-related deaths per year could spike to 10,317 in the 2050s and potentially reach 34,027 in the 2070s under a worst-case scenario. These projections are based on a 4.3C increase in temperature with minimal efforts to adapt.
The vulnerability of older individuals to extreme heat is highlighted in the research, as the population of England and Wales is expected to age significantly over the next fifty years. Even under a more optimistic scenario, where the temperature rise is limited to 1.6C from pre-industrial levels and significant adaptation efforts are made, the study still projects 3,007 heat-related deaths per year in the 2050s and 4,592 in the 2070s.
Experts are calling for increased action to adapt homes and cities to mitigate the impact of rising temperatures. Suggestions include better ventilation, increased air conditioning, the use of shutters, urban forests, heat-reflecting roofs, and increased support for vulnerable populations.
The study also warns that the exceptionally hot summer of 2022, which saw temperatures soaring to 40.3C and resulted in 2,985 excess heat-related deaths, could become the «new normal» by the 2050s. Dr. Clare Heaviside from UCL emphasizes the significance of the health impacts of a warming climate over the next five decades, stressing the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing carefully planned adaptations to address these challenges.
The research predicts an increase in the number of hot days annually in the 2060s, ranging from 21 to 32 under scenarios with minimal warming and up to 64 to 73 in the most pessimistic case. Dr. Akshay Deoras from the University of Reading underscores the lethality of extreme heat, describing it as a silent killer that often goes unnoticed until it’s too late. With another heatwave looming over the UK, the urgency of addressing these issues is emphasized.
The study has been published in the science journal PLoS. For more information, you can read the full article on Sky News, which covers topics such as a recent stabbing near a five-star London hotel and the issuance of heat health alerts and a hosepipe ban.
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